Baseball

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The New York Mets defeated the Boston Red Sox 3-2 on July 11 in a tight pitching matchup that exposed a systematic bias in information market consensus: the preseason market assessed both teams' win probabilities at roughly 50-50, but the actual game—particularly in the middle innings and late-inning scenarios—revealed the market underestimated the durability of starting pitchers and the strength of relief pitching.

Jul 13

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Brewers thrash Pirates 14-5 on the road, with pre-game markets giving this team only a 37% win probability, yet this nine-run blowout completely upended market expectations around home-field advantage—the low-probability team didn't just win, but dominated the home team with absolute superiority.

Jul 13

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The Diamondbacks' road matchup against the Dodgers ended in a 2-9 defeat, with market expectations for 'Diamondbacks win in first five innings' badly off target. Information markets had priced the visiting team at 38% probability of taking the lead in the first five frames, but the actual scoreline revealed the Dodgers' home-field advantage was significantly undervalued by the market.

Jul 12

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The Braves defeated the Cardinals 4-1 on the road, completely upending pre-game market expectations—information markets gave the visiting team just 4% odds to win, while the home team Cardinals were favored at 96%, but the visiting team's offensive firepower and in-game adjustments ultimately prevailed over home-field advantage.

Jul 12

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The Seattle Mariners defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 6-1 in a decisive road victory, yet the pre-game information market's 81% implied win probability for the Rays at home stands in sharp contrast to this lopsided result, revealing the market's systematic dual underestimation of the visitors' offensive depth and the home team's defensive stability.

Jul 12

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Giants defeated Rockies 4-3, despite the pre-game market giving Rockies a marginal 51% edge, unable to prevent the visiting team's upset. This low-scoring contest reflected the market's assessment that both teams were evenly matched, yet the ultimate difference in execution—coupled with pitcher vulnerability—turned Rockies' slim edge into defeat.

Jul 11

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The Dodgers defeated the Diamondbacks 9-3 at home on July 11. While the pregame betting market's 75% win probability proved accurate, the 6-point margin far exceeded the market's expected 3-4 point spread, revealing a systematic underestimation of home-team firepower.

Jul 11

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The Nationals defeated the Yankees 5-3 at home, validating the prediction market's pre-game 51% win-rate forecast and revealing three key turning points in market movement during the contest.

Jul 11

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The Mets (home team) defeated the Red Sox (visiting team) 6-2, while the pre-game prediction market had assigned a 97% probability to the Mets leading through five innings. The market consensus aligned perfectly with the actual result, making this game a textbook case of prediction market precision and revealing how markets achieve near-certain confidence in specific matchups.

Jul 11

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Twins narrowly defeated Angels 4-3 at home, with the pregame market pricing Angels' road win probability at approximately 50-52%. Yet the actual result reveals a systematic blind spot in how the market prices home-field advantage.

Jul 11

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The Houston Astros defeated the Texas Rangers 7-3 at Globe Life Field in Arlington, dismantling market expectations centered on home-field advantage. Pre-game information markets priced both teams at 50-50 odds, yet the Astros' decisive four-run margin exposed a fundamental miscalculation in how markets assess home-field impact.

Jul 11

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The Miami Marlins defeated the Cleveland Guardians 3-2 at home, yet despite the pregame information market offering a perfectly balanced 50-50 line, home-field advantage and pitching management ultimately proved decisive.

Jul 11

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I can see the final score clearly (Mariners 7:2 Rays), but I need one key piece of information to complete the replay analysis

Jul 11

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Phillies crushed Tigers 10-2 on the road. Despite pre-game odds assigning Tigers 53% win probability, the actual result revealed three critical imbalances the market severely underestimated.

Jul 11

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The Colorado Rockies dominated the San Francisco Giants 8-2 on the road, yet the pregame information market had assigned the Giants a 75% win probability. This upset reveals not just market undervaluation but three structural blind spots common in summer baseball forecasting.

Jul 10

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Minnesota Twins defeated Cleveland Guardians 5-2 at home on July 7, 2026, with the pre-game market assigning the Twins approximately 62% win probability. This relatively balanced victory precisely reflected the market's rational assessment of the AL Central opponent's challenges in the away environment.

Jul 10

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The San Francisco Giants defeated the Miami Marlins 4–3 on the road, yet prediction markets had priced the Giants at just 49% win probability beforehand—consensus favored home-field advantage, but the visiting team's decisive offensive execution overturned that narrative. Three market signals from this matchup warrant attention.

Jun 20