Baseball

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Polymarket priced Washington Nationals at 56% to win before first pitch, signaling an evenly matched contest. San Diego Padres delivered a 9–4 rout instead, exposing a systematic underestimation of the Padres' offensive firepower and overvaluation of home-field advantage.

May 31

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Diamondbacks 7 - Mariners 6 (road comeback win). Market's 71% favorite suffers defeat, defying pregame consensus.

May 30

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Giants 8, Colorado Rockies 6 (Giants road win) — Polymarket opening odds: Giants 55% / Rockies 46% / Over 53% / Under 48% — Final score: 14 runs in 8 innings, Over confirmed

May 30

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Polymarket odds: Mets 91%, Marlins 10%. Actual result: Marlins 9-7 walkoff win. Betting volume: $361K each side.

May 30

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Analysis based on pre-game 50% vs 51% even matchup and 6-5 final score.

May 30

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Boston Red Sox defeat Cleveland Guardians 3-4 as visitors. Polymarket odds at game start: Boston Red Sox 4% vs Cleveland Guardians 71%. Time: 2026-05-29 23:10 UTC.

May 30

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Red Sox delivered a shocking 10–2 blowout over Braves, exposing a massive gap between Polymarket's pre-game odds and actual performance.

May 29

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Rockies stun favorites with 4–1 reversal; market betting volume collapses within 24 hours

May 28

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Polymarket's 80% Angels Confidence Validated: 4-0 Rout of Tigers, But Market Missed the Over

May 28

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St. Louis Cardinals 2, Milwaukee Brewers 1 (road win) - Polymarket pre-game odds: Milwaukee Brewers 67% (home), St. Louis Cardinals 34% (road) - First pitch: 2026-05-26 23:40 UTC - Game status: Final

May 28

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San Diego Padres defeat Philadelphia Phillies 4–3 at Petco Park, overcoming strong pitching from Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez (ERA 1.62).

May 27

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Houston Astros defeat Texas Rangers 10-7 in interstate rivalry game, with early offensive surge securing victory.

May 27

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The Chicago Cubs overpowered the Pittsburgh Pirates 12–1 on May 25, delivering a complete shutout performance. The Cubs' offensive onslaught dominated from start to finish, leaving the Pirates' defense helpless in a lopsided defeat.

May 27

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The Orioles defeated the AL East-leading Rays 9-7 in 13 innings. Corey Seager hit his second consecutive walk-off two-run homer, a 425-foot blast off reliever Tyler Glasnow, to complete an incredible Orioles comeback.

May 27

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The Chicago White Sox defeated the San Francisco Giants 9–4 in a decisive performance. The market had heavily favored the White Sox at 92% win probability pre-game, and that prediction proved accurate—though the offensive intensity exceeded expectations.

May 26

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The Los Angeles Angels held off the Texas Rangers 9–6 in a tightly contested finish on the evening of May 22 (PT). Despite a furious comeback attempt in the later innings, the Rangers fell short by three runs in the nine-inning battle.

May 26

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Market odds on Polymarket pegged the Nationals as favorites heading into the matchup, but Cleveland's dominant performance on the field tells a starkly different story of prediction gone wrong.

May 26