NHL Playoffs First Round Preview: Sabres Face Canadiens in Eastern Conference Matchup

The Buffalo Sabres will take on the Montreal Canadiens in the first round of the 2026 NHL playoffs on May 8 at 11:00 PM Taiwan time. Polymarket currently favors the Sabres with 67% implied probability to advance versus 34% for the Canadiens, with roughly $97K in volume on each side. While market consensus is clear, the Canadiens remain competitive—here's a deeper analysis of recent form, injuries, and market signals.

Recent Form

Sabres finished the regular season with 93 points, sixth in the Eastern Conference. Their recent form deserves attention: 6–4 over the last ten games, including a key home win against Toronto. The team's offensive firepower is solid, averaging 3.2 goals per game. Starter Devon Levi posted a .918 save percentage this season and is the defensive cornerstone.

Injury-wise, third-line left winger Jordan Greenway is out with a lower-body injury expected to sideline him for six weeks; his status for Game 1 remains uncertain. Second-line center Dylan Cozens was hit during practice last week and is confirmed out for the first two games. Greenway's size and physicality are key assets on special teams, while Cozens's absence directly weakens center depth.

Canadiens posted 95 points this season, fifth in the East—a pleasant surprise. They went 7–3 over the last ten games, led offensively by Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, who combined for 72 goals this season. Backup starter Sam Montembeault has been sharp of late, posting a .931 save percentage over his last five games.

On the injury front, third-line right winger Josh Anderson is not expected to play in Round 1 following knee surgery recovery that fell short of targets. Backup goaltender Cayden Primeau is sidelined for personal reasons and will not play in the first round. Anderson's speed and conditioning fuel Montreal's transition game; his absence forces the coaching staff to reconfigure special teams.

Market Reading

Polymarket shows Sabres at 67% and Canadiens at 34%, seemingly one-sided, but two signals warrant attention. First, the Sabres opened at just 58% and have climbed to 67% over the past 48 hours—a jump of roughly 9 percentage points. Sharp probability moves typically reflect either new information (footage of Greenway returning to practice, for example) or significant money backing one side. Volume at $97K is mid-to-high for an NHL playoff series, suggesting real capital supports the Sabres view.

Second, Canadiens at 34% translates to roughly a 38–40% true probability of advancing in a best-of-seven framework when accounting for home ice, indicating the market has not entirely discounted Montreal's chances. When an underdog's odds slide quickly, it often signals the sportsbook or smart money is re-pricing risk.

The X Factor

The series hinge may be the second-line center matchup: Sabres rookie Zakariya Medvedev makes his playoff debut facing Montreal's battle-tested Nick Suzuki. In four regular-season meetings, Medvedev notched 1 goal and 2 assists against Montreal—respectable on paper, but playoff pace and physicality are a different beast.

A verifiable tell: watch the first six minutes of Game 1. Will the Habs actively deploy the Suzuki line to pressure Medvedev? If Montreal gains the edge at that matchup, will Sabres coach Lindy Ruff call timeout and shift to special teams coverage—a sign of adequate preparation? If Buffalo stabilizes the second-line pairing and limits Grade-A chances, the 67% market odds will have substance. If Suzuki dominates early, expect sharp money to quickly move the needle toward Montreal.