Real Betis vs Real Sociedad Preview: Home Advantage in Question as Markets Fade on Betis

As La Liga enters its closing stretch, Real Betis and Real Sociedad face off on May 10 at 3 a.m. Taiwan time at Benito Villamarín. With Betis in inconsistent form and Sociedad showing steady resilience, Polymarket pricing tells the story: Betis win probability sits at just 38%, while "No" (Betis fail to win) trades at 63%, signaling market conviction toward an away result or draw.

Recent Form

Real Betis have managed just 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses across their last five league outings, including home draws against mid-table sides and away defeats. Key midfielder Isco has returned to training but carries muscle fatigue concerns that cloud his starting status. Defender Pezzella faces a suspension via accumulated yellows, creating defensive instability that concerns manager Pellegrini, who must also address a midfield lacking control.

Real Sociedad have pieced together 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their recent stretch, with their only defeat to a top-four side. Away form stands out: 2 wins and 1 draw across their last three road matches. Winger Takefusa Kubo is ruled out with a hamstring issue, yet the attack retains Oyarzabal and Barrenetxea to manufacture chances. Defender Le Normand has recovered from injury, leaving the squad relatively intact.

Head-to-Head Record

Over five recent competitive encounters, Betis claim just 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses—and at home, the record reads 1 draw and 1 loss. Last season (2024-25), Sociedad blanked Betis 2-0 at Villamarín despite the hosts' possession edge and poor shot conversion. The season's first meeting saw Betis scrape a 1-1 draw away. Sociedad's tactical discipline consistently stifles Betis' build-up play from the back, establishing a clear matchup advantage.

Market Read

Polymarket's "Betis win" probability has drifted from 45% a week ago to 38%, with corresponding conviction flowing into the "No" side.